To replace natural intelligence
How AI transforms labor market: lawyers won't be left without work
Из выпуска мониторинга No. 5 (29), May 2026 · выпуск целиком, PDF · на сайте Института Гайдара
In May 2026, a Court in China adjudged RMB 260.000 ($ 38 400) as a compensation for an employee dismissed due to AI replacing his job functions. A technology company in Hangzhou attempted to replace a quality assurance specialist for large language models with an AI system, offering him a position with a 40% lower salary. A court ruled the dismissal unlawful.
This case clearly demonstrates the conflict between two points of view on the role of AI in working process: AI enthusiasts, motivated by the need to optimize labor costs using AI, and AI skeptics supporting workers in the skills race with AI. However, according to the OECD, exposure to AI in manufacturing processes varies significantly across sectors and occupations.
65% professions in the labor market are exposed to AI
To measure the exposure to AI in the next 5-10 years, the OECD conducted a comparative analysis of the1 competencies of various professions with AI capabilities : the greater the gap between AI capabilities and professional skills, the less susceptible the profession is to AI replacement. Conversely, if the gap is minimal, then human replacement is easy.
However, not everything is so clear-cut, as the profession involves solving a variety of multifaceted problems: some tasks, such as data processing, can be optimized using AI, while others, such as communications and people organization, cannot be solved without human intervention.
For this reason, lawyers and judges unexpectedly ended up in a group of professions least susceptible to AI replacement. Although this work is predominantly analytical, i.e., what AI does best. However, the need to make legally significant decisions makes lawyers indispensable.
Consequently, taking into account professional characteristics, according to some estimates, AI can fully replace only up to 15% of existing professions, primarily in the fields of administration and document management.
However, working conditions will change for 50- 65% professions, especially in the field of education, healthcare, science, art, mass media, repair and technical support services.
This means that professions involving working in a standardized environment are most susceptible to replacement, but if creativity or social responsibility
2 The comparison is made across nine areas of human activity: 1) communication; 2) social interaction; 3) problem solving; 4) creativity; 5) metacognition (understanding appear in a profession, then this already makes a human irreplaceable. However, contrary to the idea that physical labor is indispensable, the robotization of production should be taken into account: product packers, warehouse pickers, and parts assemblers are already at risk.
A complete list of professions that are most and least protected from competition with AI is presented in a special OECD platform.
The introduction of AI could have a positive impact on the Russian labor market. Sber estimates that robotics and generative AI could boost labor productivity from 21% to 32% by 2032. mental action); 6) knowledge, learning, and memory; 7) vision; 8) handling physical objects; 9) technical intelligence.
А что дальше
If the OECD estimates are applied to Russia based on Rosstat's labor force survey data , approximately 2,1 mn people will be in the "risk zone" by 2025, where AI or robots can confidently perform human-like tasks. These include employees in the information processing, accounting, and other office workers.
The situation is somewhat better, but still critical (by now, AI has mastered only 1-2 skills required for the profession) for another 9.3 mn people : these are salespeople, plant operators, textile workers, seamstresses, food industry workers, etc. Cleaners, What is next? domestic helpers, and "business specialists" are still safe, while top managers and education workers are doing best.
- The OECD considers office and manufacturing occupations, food preparation workers, textile workers, forestry workers, and sales workers to be the closest to what AI can already do. According to Rosstat's 2025 labor force survey, approximately 11.36 mn people in Russia are employed in such occupations. This figure represents the number of workers in occupations whose tasks, according to the OECD, can already be performed by AI. ↑
- Number of employees involved in numerical data processing and inventory control: 1.081,451. General clerical and office equipment maintenance workers: 529.960. Other office workers: 487.502. Total of all listed above workers: 1 081 451 + 529 960 + 487 502 = 2 098 913 people. ↑
- Operators of industrial plants and stationary equipment – 1 883 204 people. Food, wood, textile, clothing and related industry workers – 1 641 286 people. Assembly workers – 427 488 people. Cooking assistants – 153 243 people. Salespeople – 5 158 606 people Total of all listed above workers: ↑
- 883 204 + 1 641 286 + 427 488 + 153 243 + 5 158 606 = 9 263 827 people. ↑
From the monitoring issue No. 5 (29), May 2026. Download the full issue (PDF) · issue page at the Gaidar Institute
